Ib tsab ntawv ceeb toom Wood Mackenzie tsis ntev los no saib cov ncauj lus thiab cov teeb meem hauv kev lag luam hnub ci hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, suav nrog kev tsim khoom tsim los ntawm US Inflation Reduction Act.
Los ntawm pv magazine USA
Tsoomfwv Meskas Txoj Cai txo nqi nce nqi ntawm 2022 muaj $ 370 nphom hauv kev siv nyiaj rau lub zog tauj dua tshiab thiab kev ntsuas huab cua.Daim nqi suav nrog ntau dua $ 60 billion raudomestic manufacturingthoob plaws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob huv huv.Qhov keeb kwm ntawm kev nqis peev no yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ua tiav Asmeskas kev tsim kev ywj pheej thiab kev nyab xeeb ntawm lub zog huv.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no los ntawm Wood Mackenzie qhia tias cov neeg tsim khoom, cov tuam txhab tsim khoom siv engineering (EPCs), thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom yuav saib xyuas kev taw qhia los ntawm US Treasury Department thiab IRS kom meej meej txhawm rau txhawm rau txhim kho lub hnub ci tshiab thiab kev nqis peev hauv cov chaw tsim khoom tshiab. nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm saib cov qauv hauv kev lag luam burgeoning no, suav nrog kev tsom mus rau TOPCon modules dhau heterojunction (HJT), kev loj hlob hauv lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam inverter, kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim cov tracker, kev cia siab poob rau hauv cov nqi hnub ci thiab saib cov kev sib tw mus tom ntej. .
TOPcon vs. PERC
TOPCon, uas sawv cev rau qhov oxide passivated kev sib cuag, xav kom outrace heterojunction (HJT), thiab Wood Mackenzie tsab ntawv ceeb toom sau tseg tias mono PERC "yog cov thev naus laus zis uas sib npaug kev loj hlob thiab kev ua tau zoo", qhia tias TOPCon muaj peev xwm loj hlob siab tshaj plaws vim cov txheej txheem. kev txhim kho thiab nqi optimization.
"Lub PERCvaj huam sib luag technologykuj tseem muaj kev kawm nrawm heev thiab qhov sib npaug ntawm lawv yuav nyob ntawm seb tus twg yuav tuaj yeem ua kom nws ua tau zoo lossis txo tus nqi sai dua li lwm tus, "Stefan Gunz, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb photovoltaics ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees Fraunhofer lub koom haum rau hnub ci zog Systems (ISE), haispv magazineib xyoo dhau los.
Wood Mackenzie cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kwv yees tias TOPCon modules tau mus txog 25% kev ua tau zoo hauv kev tsim khoom loj thiab tuaj yeem nce mus rau 28.7%
Txhim kho kev tsim khoom los ntawm mono PERC ntau lawm rau TOPCon yog ib qho yooj yim thiab tus nqi qis, thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees tias kev ua haujlwm ntawm 27% tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm kev txhim kho hauv metallization thiab thinner wafers.Ntoo Mackenzie sau tseg tias qee cov tuam txhab xav tias qhov nruab nrab wafer tuab rau cov qauv loj TOPCon yuav txo 20 μm xyoo no mus rau 120 μm, uas yuav ua rau feem ntau ntawm cov nqi txo hauv 2023.
Txoj Cai txo nqi nce nqi yog txhawb nqa US module tsim los ntawm $ 30 nphom hauv cov nqi se ntau lawm nrog rau $ 10 billion nqis peev se credit los tsim cov cuab yeej tsim khoom huv si.Wood Mackenzie cia siab tias USmodule ntau lawm muaj peev xwmkom tshaj 15 GW thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo no.
Cov lus nug loj, txawm li cas los xij, yog lub ntsiab lus ntawm "cov khoom siv hauv tsev", thiab seb nws puas txhais tau tias cov modules tau sib sau ua ke hauv Tebchaws Meskas, lossis yog tias tag nrho cov khoom tsim hauv Tebchaws Meskas.Qhov kev sib tw rau cov tsim qauv yog tias tsis muaj wafer lossis cell manufacturing hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, txawm hais tias qhov ntawd tau hloov nrog cov ntawv tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no los ntawm cov tuam txhab suav nrog Qcells thiab CubicPV.Qhov sib txawv ntawm kev txhais cov ntsiab lus hauv tsev "tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej", daim ntawv tshaj tawm sib cav.Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees tias yuav luag 45 GWdc ntawm cov ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab muaj peev xwm yuav tuaj online los ntawm 2026.
Kev cia siab tias kev loj hlob ntawm hnub ci hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav ripple los ntawm cov saw hlau, txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm inverters thiab trackers, ntawm lwm cov khoom txhawb nqa.Lub Wood Mackenzie tsab ntawv ceeb toom sau tseg tias tsis ntev los no txoj cai hloov pauv, suav nrog EU's REPowerEU, Is Nrias teb qhov kev siv ntawm Production Linked Incentives (PLI) thiab US IRA, yuav ua kom lub hnub ci saws nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws no, yog li pab cov teb chaws ncav cuag lawv lub hom phiaj zero.
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom, kev lag luam nyob hauv inverter yuav loj hlob thoob plaws ntiaj teb hauv xyoo 2023. Nrog rau lub hnub ci lub hnub ci tau txais lub zog, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Lub teb chaws Yelemees, yuav muaj kev sib koom ua lag luam rau microinverters, hlua inverters thiab DC optimizers, Feem ntau nrov inverter xaiv rau ru tsev installation.Qhov tseem ceeb, txoj hlua inverters nrog ntau lub zog siab tshaj plaws taw tes trackers (MPPTs) yuav pom kev lag luam nce ntxiv hauv 2023.
Inverters nyob hauv tsev yuav pom kev siv dag zog ntau ntxiv hauv nws cov algorithms.Module-theem fais fab hluav taws xob hluav taws xob (MLPEs) thiab ib-theem hlua inverters, nrov tshaj plaws hauv kev teeb tsa hnub ci hauv tsev, yuav pom 11% kev ua lag luam sib koom hauv ntiaj teb inverter xa khoom hauv 2023. Inverter manufacturing yuav nce nrog cov players loj ntxiv cov kab ntau lawm thiab cov neeg tuaj tshiab. koom nrog kev ua lag luam, thiab kev sib tw tom ntej yuav ua rau tus nqi poob ntawm 2% mus rau 4% hauv 2023.
Ib qho kev sib tw txuas ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab lag luam inverter yog lub ntiaj teb nti tsis txaus, uas Wood Mackenzie cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2023 thiab dhau mus rau xyoo 2024. Qhov tsis txaus tau ua rau cov tuam txhab inverter los muab cov chips los ntawm cov tuam txhab qis dua ua ntej ua cov kev ntsuam xyuas hauv tsev. los xyuas kom meej lawv inverters 'zoo, efficiency thiab lifespan.Wood Mac kwv yees tias tus nqi inverter yuav tsis nqis mus txog rau thaum xyoo no.
Kev tsim cov neeg taug qab hauv tsev tau nrawm dua nyob rau ntau qhov chaw hauv ntiaj teb vim yog tsoomfwv cov kev txhawb siab nrog rau cov teeb meem kev thauj mus los tau ntsib thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw.Raws li Wood Mackenzie kws tshuaj ntsuam, tus nqi tracker yuav poob hauv Is Nrias teb thiab hauv Tebchaws Meskas.Lawv cia siab tias yuav muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntau dua hauv cov khoom siv hlau hauv Asmeskas thiab Is Nrias teb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim cov hlau uas twb muaj lawm.Tebchaws Europe, txawm li cas los xij, tseem yuav ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntseeg hauv kev lag luam steel.Raws li ntau dua 60% ntawm cov tracker muaj pes tsawg leeg yog hlau, qhov kev rov qab los ntawm cov hlau xav tau yuav ua rau muaj kev sib tw hauv kev sib tw ua lag luam rau cov neeg muag khoom, hais tias Wood Mackenzie cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, kwv yees tias 2023 tus nqi rau cov neeg taug qab yuav poob 5% hauv Tebchaws Meskas, Brazil thiab Tuam Tshoj.
Hnub ci nqi
Cov nqi siv peev nyiaj yuav poob mus ntxiv, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev siv TOPcon modules ntxiv.Wood Mackenzie cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tseem cia siab tias tus nqi polysilicon yuav poob rau xyoo no thiab lawv kwv yees tias qhov uas twb muaj lawm.300 GWLub peev xwm thoob ntiaj teb yuav ncav cuag 900 GW thaum kawg ntawm 2023.
"Peb kwv yees tias ntau dua 1 lab Mt ntawm polysilicon nthuav dav yuav tuaj online los ntawm 2023. Feem ntau ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab yuav nyob hauv Suav teb.Txawm li cas los xij, peb ntseeg tias kwv yees li 10% yuav tsum nyob sab nraud Tuam Tshoj tuaj yeem hais kom tus nqi them nqi raws li nws yuav tsis muaj nqi se thiab lwm yam kev pheej hmoo. "
Ib qho kev sib tw tsis tu ncua yog qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm tus nqi tiv thaiv kev lag luam / tawm tsam (AD / CVD) tariff.Nrog rau Asmeskas Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam xav tias yuav tshaj tawm nws qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg hauv lub Tsib Hlis 2023, Wood Mackenzie kwv yees tias cov dej num tuaj yeem muaj li ntawm 16% mus rau 254% raws li lub tebchaws tuaj.Qhov kev txiav txim siab ua ntej, tshaj tawm thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, pom cov tuam txhab qib 1, xws li Trina, BYD, Vina (ib chav tsev ntawm Longi) thiab Canadian Hnub Ci, hla dhau Suav cov nqi se.Qhov kev txiav txim siab ua ntej tau tshem tawm Hanwha thiab Jinko uas yuav ua rau qee qhov kev pab cuam nyob rau hauv module muaj nyob rau hauv 2023.
Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, cov neeg tsim khoom tseem yuav tsom mus rau qhov yuav tsum tau ua ntawm IRA, suav nrog cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov ntsiab lus hauv tsev ntxiv rau kev siv hluav taws xob ua haujlwm pib tsim nyob rau xyoo 2023. Rau cov phiaj xwm los thov tag nrho 30% kev nqis peev se credit lossis se ntau lawm. credit, tag nrho cov haujlwm loj dua 1 MWac yuav tsum them nws cov neeg ua haujlwm cov nyiaj ua haujlwm thiab tsim ib qho kev kawm ua haujlwm.
Hauv Tebchaws Europe, REPowerEU txoj cai tsom mus rau nruab 320 GW ntawm hnub ci PV los ntawm 2025 thiab 600 GW raws li EU lub tswv yim hnub ci zog.Yuav kom ua tau raws li cov hom phiaj xav tau, nws yuav tsum tsim kom muaj lub chaw tsim khoom muaj zog hauv thaj av.Tus tshiab European Hnub Ci Photovoltaic Kev Lag Luam Alliance, yuav tsim ib lub hauv paus los pab nyiaj txiag ruaj ntseg rau kev tsim khoom thiab txhawb kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim kho tshiab hauv kev siv tshuab module, ntawm lwm cov thev naus laus zis-carbon.
Qhov kev sib tw zaum kawg rauPV manufacturingHauv Tebchaws Europe, raws li Wood Mackenzie kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, yog tus nqi sib tw los ntawm thaj av APAC vim nws cov nqi siab dua ntawm lub zog, kev ua haujlwm thiab cov khoom siv, tab sis nws tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txaus siab them tus nqi rau kev siv tshuab zoo dua thiab pob tshab hauv cov khoom siv.
Post lub sij hawm: Jan-29-2023