Los ntawm Finlay Colville
Kaum Ib Hlis 17, 2022
Yuav muaj polysilicon txaus tsim nyob rau hauv 2022 los txhawb kev tsim ntawm txog 320GW ntawm c-Si modules.Yees duab: JA Solar.
Lub hnub ci PV kev lag luam yog kwv yees los tsim 310GW ntawm cov qauv hauv 2022, sawv cev rau qhov zoo kawg li 45% xyoo-rau-xyoo nce piv rau 2021, raws li kev tshawb fawb tshiab tau ua los ntawm PV Tech kev lag luam pab pawg tshawb fawb thiab tau teev tseg hauv PV Manufacturing tshiab & Technology Quarterly qhia.
Kev ua lag luam hauv xyoo 2022 yog kev tsim khoom-coj thiab thaum kawg loj los ntawm cov nyiaj polysilicon tsim tawm thoob plaws xyoo.Kev xav tau ntawm lub sijhawm yuav khiav 50-100% siab dua li qhov yuav ua tau.
Yuav muaj polysilicon txaus tsim nyob rau hauv 2022 los txhawb kev tsim ntawm txog 320GW ntawm c-Si modules.Wafer thiab c-Si cell ntau lawm yuav xaus li ntawm 315GW.Module ntau lawm (c-Si thiab nyias-zaj duab xis) yuav tsum nyob ze rau 310GW, nrog kev ua lag luam kawg xa khoom ntawm 297GW.Kuv tab tom tso qhov ± 2% yuam kev-kho ntawm cov txiaj ntsig tam sim no, nrog rau rau lub lis piam ntawm kev tsim tawm rau xyoo.
Ntawm 297GW ntawm cov qauv xa tawm hauv 2022, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov no yuav tsis ua rau lub peev xwm PV tshiab.Qhov no yog vim muaj ntau yam;qee tus qauv, qee qhov tshiab.Cov lus tshaj tawm feem ntau yog 'kev khaws cia' ntawm cov qauv ntawm Asmeskas kev lis kev cai thiab kev sib txuas qeeb.Tab sis tam sim no yeej muaj qhov txaus siab ntim mus rau hauv kev hloov pauv hloov lossis txawm tias cog kev rov ua dua tshiab.Qhov kawg PV tshiab muaj peev xwm ntxiv nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav xaus mus ze rau 260GW ib zaug tag nrho cov no paub tag nrho.
Los ntawm kev tsim khoom tsim, tsis muaj qhov xav tsis thoob loj.Tuam Tshoj tsim 90% ntawm polysilicon, 99% ntawm wafers, 91% ntawm c-Si hlwb thiab 85% ntawm c-Si modules.Thiab tau kawg, txhua tus xav tau kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog Is Nrias teb, Asmeskas thiab Europe.Kev xav yog ib yam;muaj yog lwm tus.
Txog ib nrab ntawm cov polysilicon ua nyob rau hauv Suav teb thaum xyoo 2022 rau PV kev lag luam yog tsim nyob rau hauv Xinjiang.Qhov kev sib piv no yuav poob txhua xyoo mus rau yav tom ntej tam sim no, tsis muaj peev xwm tshiab xav tias yuav tuaj online hauv cheeb tsam no.
Hais txog kev siv tshuab, n-hom ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev, nrog TOPCon tam sim no qhov kev nyiam tshaj plaws rau cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam, txawm hais tias qee lub npe tseem ceeb vam tias yuav tsav los ntawm ob qho tib si heterojunction thiab rov qab sib cuag mus rau ntau-GW nplai hauv 2023. Yuav luag 20GW. ntawm n-hom hlwb raug kwv yees yuav tsim nyob rau hauv 2022, ntawm uas 83% yuav yog TOPCon.Cov neeg tsim khoom hauv Suav tau tsav TOPCon kev hloov pauv;kwv yees li 97% ntawm TOPCon hlwb ua nyob rau hauv 2022 yog nyob rau hauv Suav teb.Xyoo tom ntej no yuav pom qhov kev hloov pauv no, vim TOPCon pib nrhiav nws txoj hauv kev mus rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, ib yam dab tsi uas yuav xav tau TOPCon hlwb yuav tsum tau ua sab nraum Tuam Tshoj, tej zaum nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia, tab sis nws nyob ntawm seb muaj dab tsi tshwm sim nrog kev tshawb nrhiav txuas mus ntxiv. anti-circumvention nyob rau hauv lub US.
Hais txog kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj thaum xyoo 2022, Tebchaws Europe tau dhau los ua tus yeej loj, txawm hais tias 100GW-ntxiv cov modules tau tsim hauv Suav teb thiab khaws cia hauv Suav teb.Nrog rau kev zam ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas, tag nrho lwm qhov kev lag luam loj kawg tau pom muaj kev loj hlob ntawm tus lej thib ob, ua raws li kev xav ntawm lub hnub ci uas tau tuav lub ntiaj teb tsis ntev los no.
Tebchaws Europe tau ntsib ob peb qhov teeb meem hauv 2022 uas ua rau muaj kev loj hlob zoo heev.Lub cheeb tsam tau dhau los ua qhov chaw xa khoom mus rau qhov ntim uas tsis muaj nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam thiab tseem tau cuam tshuam tam sim ntawd los ntawm qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv Ukraine.Yuav luag 67GW ntawm cov qauv raug xa mus rau European lag luam hauv 2022 - ntim tsis muaj leej twg xav tau ib xyoos dhau los.
Thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, PV kev lag luam tau pom muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm cov lus buzz tshiab ntawm txhua tus neeg daim di ncauj: traceability.Yuav cov hnub ci PV modules yeej tsis tau nyuaj heev.
Muab tso tseg qhov tseeb tias tus nqi tseem yog 20-30% siab dua li ob peb xyoos dhau los, cov ntawv cog lus tau kos npe rau 6 lub hlis dhau los yuav tsis tsim nyog rau daim ntawv uas lawv tau sau rau, lossis qhov tseeb yog cov ntsiab lus thorny ntawm kev ntseeg siab thiab hwm kev lees paub.
Outranking tag nrho cov no niaj hnub no yog qhov traceability conundrum.Leej twg ua dab tsi thiab qhov twg niaj hnub no, thiab ntau ntxiv rau lub ntsiab lus, qhov twg lawv yuav ua rau xyoo tom ntej.
Lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam tab tom ntsib teeb meem tam sim no thiab nws txhais li cas thaum yuav PV module.Kuv tau sau ntau yam ntawm PV Tech xyoo dhau los txog vim li cas nws tseem ceeb heev kom nkag siab tias feem ntau cov tuam txhab muag cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj dab tsi uas tsis yog 'pob' cov khoom tsim los ntawm lwm lub tuam txhab.Ua ntej, kuv xav tias nws tseem ceeb heev nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev ntseeg siab nyob rau hauv zoo;tam sim no qhov no tau raug tshaj tawm los ntawm kev taug qab thiab qhov xav tau los tshuaj xyuas cov khoom xa khoom.
Module cov neeg yuav khoom yuav tsum tau kawm txog kev sib tsoo hauv kev tsim cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tam sim no, tshem tawm cov khaubncaws sab nraud povtseg ntawm cov qauv txhua txoj kev rov qab mus rau cov khoom siv raw mus rau hauv cov nroj tsuag polysilicon thoob ntiaj teb.Mob raws li nws yuav zoo li, cov txiaj ntsig kawg yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb, thaum kawg outranking ntawm traceability auditing.
Tam sim no, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev tsim khoom (polysilicon, wafer, cell thiab module) nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau segment lub ntiaj teb no rau hauv rau qhov chaw: Xinjiang, tus so ntawm Tuam Tshoj, Southeast Asia, Is Nrias teb, lub US, thiab lwm yam ntiaj teb no.Tej zaum xyoo tom ntej, Tebchaws Europe los ua si ntawm no, tab sis rau 2022 nws yog ntxov ntxov kom rub tawm Tebchaws Europe (tshwj tsis yog qhov tseeb tias Wacker ua polysilicon hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees).
Cov duab hauv qab no yog muab los ntawm webinar kuv tau xa tawm lub lim tiam dhau los.Nws qhia txog 2022 kev tsim khoom thoob plaws ntau thaj chaw uas tau hais los saum toj no.
Tuam Tshoj tswj hwm kev tsim khoom ntawm PV Cheebtsam thaum xyoo 2022, nrog rau ntau qhov kev tsom mus rau ntau npaum li cas polysilicon tau tsim nyob rau hauv Xinjiang.
Mus rau xyoo 2023, muaj ntau qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm lub sijhawm no, thiab kuv yuav sim thiab npog cov no nyob rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej ntawm peb cov xwm txheej thiab hauv PV Tech nta thiab webinars
Thaum traceability thiab ESG yuav nyob twj ywm siab ntawm cov txheej txheem rau feem ntau (ob qho tib si yuav thiab muag modules), qhov teeb meem ntawm tus nqi module (ASP) tuaj yeem yog ib qho los taug qab ze tshaj (dua!).
Module ASP tseem nyob siab rau ob peb xyoos nkaus xwb vim yog qhov kev ntshaw ntawm lub hnub ci uas lub net xoom syndrome tau ua rau tsoomfwv, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov koom haum thoob ntiaj teb (hnub ci tseem yog lub zog txuas ntxiv zoo nkauj tshaj plaws vim qhov nrawm ntawm kev xa tawm thiab ntawm qhov chaw / kev ua tswv cuab yooj yim).Txawm hais tias ib qho kev xav tias qhov kev thov (tsis tuaj yeem txhais tau thaum tsuas yog ib feem ntawm cov tub ua lag luam tau txais cov khoom lag luam) rau hnub ci ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, ntawm qee kis Tuam Tshoj muaj peev xwm ntau dhau yuav nkag mus rau hauv qhov chaw.
Cias muab tso, yog tias koj xav tau ob npaug rau ib yam dab tsi rau xyoo tom ntej thiab cov saw khoom lag luam ua lag luam ua peb zaug ntawm qhov ntim ntawm xyoo tas los, qhov no dhau los ua tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob.Nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no niaj hnub no, lub bottleneck yog polysilicon.Xyoo 2023, qee qhov kev lag luam yuav muaj lwm yam kev tsis sib haum xeeb yog tias muaj cov xwm txheej ntshuam rau lwm qhov chaw ntawm cov nqi saw (xws li lossis cov qauv, piv txwv).Tab sis lub hom phiaj yog dav dav ntawm polysilicon thiab muaj peev xwm tshiab npaum li cas yuav tuaj hauv online hauv Suav teb thiab qhov no yuav ua li cas;muaj peev xwm thiab ntau lawm yog ob yam sib txawv heev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum cov players tshiab nkag mus rau qhov chaw.
Kev kwv yees ntau lawm polysilicon xyoo 2023 yog qhov nyuaj heev niaj hnub no.Tsis muaj ntau npaum li cas ntawm kev ua haujlwm tawm qib ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab yuav 'tsim';ntau li ntawd nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm qhov no yuav ua li cas thiab yog hais tias Suav polysilicon 'cartel' yuav ua los tswj cov khoom nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav kom nws nruj.Nws ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo rau Suav polysilicon cov neeg tsim khoom los ua ib lub club, lossis cartel, thiab txo qis kev nthuav dav yog tias xav tau, lossis txuas ntxiv kev saib xyuas ib nrab xyoo kom tau txais cov khoom muag.
Keeb kwm qhia peb qhov opposite ho.Suav tuam txhab uas muag zoo li mus hla dhau thaum muaj kev lag luam xav tau, thiab txawm hais tias lub teb chaws tau muab tso rau hauv qhov zoo tshaj plaws kom dhau los ua haujlwm ntawm qib peev txheej, nws ua tiav qhov pub dawb-rau-tag nrho nrog nyiaj tsis kawg ntawm lub rooj rau txhua tus neeg tuaj tshiab nrog. kev lag luam aspiration.
Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias tus nqi polysilicon tuaj yeem nqis los, tab sis module nqi nce.Qhov no tej zaum yuav nyuaj rau coj mus rau hauv raws li nws mus tawm tsam ib txwm logic hauv PV kev lag luam.Tab sis nws yog ib yam dab tsi uas yuav tshwm sim hauv 2023. Kuv yuav sim piav qhia qhov no tam sim no.
Hauv kev ua lag luam nrog cov khoom siv ntau dhau (raws li kev lag luam PV ua haujlwm feem ntau txog rau xyoo 2020), muaj feem ntau yuav qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis qis.Los ntawm lub neej ntawd, tus nqi polysilicon (piv txwv tias oversupply muaj ib yam nkaus) yog qis.Xav txog qhov sub US $ 10 / kg rov qab rau hnub.
Ob peb xyoos dhau los, tus nqi module tsis tau nce siab vim tias cov khoom siv polysilicon nruj thiab tus nqi nce (mus rau saum US $ 30 / kg feem ntau), tab sis vim nws yog ib qho module muag khoom lag luam.Yog tias tus nqi polysilicon hauv xyoo 2022 tau txo qis rau US $ 10 / kg, cov khoom lag luam module tseem tuaj yeem muag cov khoom hauv thaj tsam 30-40c / W.Yuav cia li muaj cov paj ntau dua rau wafer, cell thiab module tsim tawm.Koj tsis nqa tus nqi yog tias koj tsis xav tau.
Rau 18 lub hlis dhau los, nws tau ua rau kuv xav tsis thoob tias Beijing tsis tau (ua tiav tom qab) 'kev txiav txim' lub polysilicon cartel hauv Suav teb kom txo nqi.Tsis yog los pab lwm tus hauv ntiaj teb no thaum yuav cov qauv, tab sis kom tso cai rau kev sib faib ncaj ncees ntawm cov txiaj ntsig thoob plaws qhov seem ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom hauv Suav teb.Kuv tsuas xav tias nws tsis tshwm sim vim hais tias txhua tus neeg hauv Suav teb tuaj yeem vam meej thiab khaws 10-15% tag nrho cov paj - txawm tias polysilicon muag ntawm US $ 40 / kg.Tsuas yog vim li cas thiaj li rau tsab ntawv tshaj tawm Beijing yuav yog qhia rau lub ntiaj teb sab nraud tias nws cov khoom siv polysilicon (nco txog ib nrab ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov polysilicon xyoo 2022 tau ua hauv Xinjiang) tsis tau tshaj tawm 70-80% cov npoo thaum nyob rau hauv lub tsom teeb tshwm sim los ntawm tag nrho cov lus nug Xinjiang. .
Yog li ntawd, nws tsis yog vwm tias thaum xyoo 2023, yuav muaj qee lub sijhawm uas tus nqi polysilicon nqes los tab sis tus nqi module tsis cuam tshuam thiab tej zaum yuav nce ntxiv.
Nws tsis yog txhua yam xov xwm phem rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv xyoo 2023. Muaj cov cim qhia tias kev siv nyiaj ntau dhau yuav tshwm sim, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 thiab tej zaum yuav pom thawj zaug rau European module buyers.Feem ntau ntawm qhov no yog los ntawm qhov tseeb tias Suav lag luam tab tom saib kev xa khoom loj heev rau Tebchaws Europe thiab yuav luag txhua txoj hauv kev saum toj no cov neeg tsim khoom nyob sab Europe / EPCs tuaj yeem tshwm sim ntawm kev ceeb toom luv luv.
Feem ntau ntawm cov ncauj lus no yuav yog theem nruab nrab ntawm lub rooj sib tham PV ModuleTech yav tom ntej hauv Malaga, Spain thaum 29-30 Kaum Ib Hlis 2022. Tseem muaj chaw tuaj koom qhov kev tshwm sim;Xav paub ntau ntxiv ntawm qhov hyperlink ntawm no thiab yuav sau npe mus koom li cas.Tsis tau muaj lub sijhawm zoo dua rau peb los tuav peb lub rooj sib tham European PV ModuleTech thawj zaug!
Post lub sij hawm: Nov-21-2022